Skip to main content

NEM


 Delayed onset of Northeast monsoon.

                            This year the much awaited Northeast monsoon is to delayed due to the resistance in the withdrawal of Southwest monsoon . The withdrawal is halted at 25'north latitude due to the aftercoming circulations/pulses from south chine sea which as restricted the withdrawal of Southwest monsoon over peninsular region . This makes the reversal of wind direction from west-east to east-west difficult. MJO is prevailing over south china sea(maritime continents) is likely to move away and once this movement begins the rapid withdrawal of SWM will take place and the NEM will set in quite after it. This onset process will happen between 23rd OCT to 28th OCT (normal onset 17-18th OCT) which means a delayed onset this time for us . Once the dynamics changes the east coasts of TN and Andhra will recieve widespread rains (moderate). 

                            Thank you.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

தமிழகத்தை நோக்கி நகரும் சலனம்

பருவமழை மீண்டும் தீவிரமடைகிறது                          கடந்த வாரம் தமிழகம் முழவதும்  பரவலாக நல்ல மழை பதிவானது. அதன் பின் பருவமழை சற்று நின்று இருந்தது. தற்பொழுது பருவமழை மீண்டும் புயல் வடிவில் புத்துயிர் பெற்றுள்ளது. வங்க கடலில் உருவாகும் நிவார் புயல் (உச்சரிப்பு வேறுபடலாம்) தமிழகத்தை நோக்கி நகரும் என்று எதிர்பர்க்கப்படுகிறது.  ஆழ்ந்த குறைந்த காற்றழுத்த தாழ்வு நிலை.                      நவ 19ஆம் தேதி , தென்கிழக்கு வங்க கடல் பகுதியில் ஒரு மேலடுக்கு சுழற்சி உருவானது , அது நவ 20ஆம் தேதி வலுப்பெற்று குறைந்த காற்றழுத்த தாழ்வு நிலையாக உருவானது . இத்தழ்வானது இன்று மேலும் வழுவடைந்து ஆழ்ந்த குறைந்த காற்றழுத்த தாழ்வு நிலையாக தென்மேற்கு வங்க கடல் பகுதியில் நிலவி வருகிறது. மேலும் தீவிரமடையும்.                       ஆழ்ந்த காற்றழுத்த தாழ்வுநிலை ஆனது வரும் 12 முதல் 24 மணி நேரத்தில் காற்றழுத்த தாழ்வு மண்டலம் ஆக வலுப்பெ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Active Phase Of Monsoon

Monsoon Revamped                               After a week long of Rains that lashed the state due to trough of low, the monsoon took a break (halt) for the past couple of days or so . Now the monsoon moved into a vigorous phase with a first low of the season that is forecasted to churn into a cyclone and expected to cross the coast. Now lets see what we can expect in the coming weeks. Well Marked Low                                                On 19th Nov a broad convection has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal with a potential to become a organised system. In the early hrs of 20th Nov the convection consolidated into low pressure area influenced by the low level circulation over southwest and adjoining areas of Bay of Bengal. Today the 22nd Nov the LPA intensified into Well marked low pr...
Post a Comment
Read more

ElNino vs LaNina

  ElNino                   Nino refers to the difference in the sea surface temperatures (SST) compared to the temperature anomalies. Nino is observed in the pacific region which is denoted as pacific 3.4 region. Here the ElNino refers to the increase in SST against anomalies. ElNino interplays with the monsoon of the Indian subcontinent and the adjoining Indian Ocean . If ElNino is present in the 3.4 region coupled with negative IOD and in the presence of MJO causes heavy rainfall events during NE monsoon. For example 2015 was such an year that all above mentioned phenomenons were at its peak causing more number of systems to form in North Indian ocean basin which caused torrential downpour that ultimately ended with flood.   Fig 1 shows the Nino 3.4 region in pacific basin (ElNino year) LaNina                 LaNina refers to the decrease in SST against the anomalies. LaNina occurs in the sa...
Post a Comment
Read more